The China Factor in 2020 Taiwan Elections

Prepared for the Greater Dallas Taiwan Chamber of Commerce Director Board Meeting, May 16th, 2019

Karl Ho

University of Texas at Dallas

Background

In 2018, the ruling party Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered major defeats in local and mayoral elections. The loss in the south including Kaohsiung was unprecedented.

2016

2018

Background

Is Taiwan politics becoming more volatile?
How much do the issue impacts change from elections to elections?
What is the outlook of the 2020 elections?

In 2018, the ruling party Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered major defeats in local and mayoral elections. The loss in the south including Kaohsiung was unprecedented.

Logistic Regression: Issue Impacts on Tsai Vote (2016)
Clark, Ho and Tan (2016)

Findings: 2004-2016 Surveys

Party identification variables have strong effects guiding the issue variables.
Three important variables stand out:
1. National identity issue (Independence vs. unification)
2. Economic evaluations
3. Taiwanese identity (Taiwanese vs. Chinese)
Demographic variables are weak (age, income.
Effect sizes vary, even though the same metrics are used (1,0)

New methods

We run regression models using resampled data with all combinations of relevant variables.
Each year, we estimated over 16,000 models to test the stability of the effects.

Figure 2. Issue effects in Taiwan elections:
Support Independence

Closer to middle red line means the weakening of effects

Note the stronger negative impact on KMT in 2016

Figure 3. Issue effects in Taiwan elections:
Economic evaluations

Figure 4. Issue effects in Taiwan elections:
Taiwanese

Summary

Asymmetry of impacts in the national identity continuum prevails. Independence proponents have been showing stronger support for DPP than unification proponents to KMT.
Taiwanese identity polarizes further the blue and green in 2016.
Economic factors may not be the predominant driving forces of future elections, in competition with other identity factors and party effects.

Trends of public opinion data

Multiple candidates from more than blue and green camps comparing to Blue vs. Green in the past
Many many more surveys of different modes:
- Telephone
  - Landline
  - Mobile
- Internet
- Face-to-face
Social media, internet data: Big data methods

DPP competitions

Source: ETtoday (https://www.ettoday.net/news/20190515/1444988.htm)

KMT competitions

Viable candidates: Terry Guo vs. Han Kuo-yu

Source: 無情真實的未來預測 (https://tsjh301.blogspot.com)

KMT competitions

Viable candidates: Terry Guo vs. Han Kuo-yu

Determining factors
- Polls
- Internet data
  - volume, name recognition, discussion
  - supporting networks
- Events leading to January, 2019

Survey Data: Han-Ko-Tsai

Date	Han Kuo-yu	Ko Wen-je	Tsai Ing-wen	Lead
March, 2019	36.7%	27.9%	20.3%	9.0%
April, 2019	38.6%	25.3%	23.5%	13.7%
May, 2019	35.3%	24.6%	25.7%	10.0%

Note: Averages from 18 surveys by multiple pollsters
Source: 無情真實的未來預測 (https://tsjh301.blogspot.com)

Survey Data: Han-Ko-Tsai

Note: Averages from 18 surveys by multiple pollsters
Source: 無情真實的未來預測 (https://tsjh301.blogspot.com)

Survey data

調查單位	「樣本」	發布日期	韓國瑜	柯文哲	蔡英文	領先	中立/未表
TVBS民調	1,015	3/20/19	38.0%	28.0%	18.0%	10.0%	16.0%
美麗島民調	1,072	3/26/19	35.4%	27.8%	22.6%	8.0%	14.2%
山水民調	1,087	4/2/19	37.4%	30.1%	22.3%	7.0%	10.2%
世新大學	1,068	4/18/19	40.1%	26.5%	26.2%	14.0%	7.2%
美麗島民調	1,087	4/20/19	37.8%	22.9%	24.8%	13.0%	14.5%
聯合報	1,178	4/22/19	36.0%	26.0%	20.0%	10.0%	18.0%
ET民調(含網路)	7,868	4/23/19	38.9%	23.0%	27.8%	11.0%	10.3%
TVBS民調	1,222	4/26/19	42.0%	25.0%	22.0%	17.0%	11.0%
美麗島民調	1,068	4/29/19	32.3%	24.1%	24.3%	18.0%	19.3%
旺旺中時	1,004	5/1/19	41.1%	25.0%	20.9%	16.0%	13.0%
TVBS民調	1,222	4/26/19	42.0%	25.0%	23.0%	17.0%	10.0%
趨勢民調	1,069	5/3/19	35.4%	23.4%	28.0%	7.0%	13.2%
循證民調	1,101	5/3/19	32.6%	26.0%	27.9%	5.0%	13.5%
遠見調查	1,166	5/8/19	36.3%	27.1%	20.6%	19.0%	16.0%
TVBS民調	951	5/10/19	39.0%	26.0%	25.0%	13.0%	10.0%
典通民調	1,077	5/14/19	34.3%	22.7%	28.3%	6.0%	14.7%
台灣指標	1,188	5/15/19	31.5%	24.1%	25.0%	7.0%	19.4%
ET民調(含網路)	3,489	5/15/19	38.2%	22.7%	25.4%	13.0%	13.7%

Survey Data: Gou-Ko-Tsai

Note: Averages from 14 surveys by multiple pollsters
Source: 無情真實的未來預測 (https://tsjh301.blogspot.com)

Date	Terry Guo	Ko Wen-je	Tsai Ing-wen	Lead
April, 2019	32.1%	26.7%	24.1%	5.9%
May, 2019	29.5%	26.8%	26.4%	3.2%

Survey Data: Gou-Ko-Tsai

Note: Averages from 14 surveys by multiple pollsters
Source: 無情真實的未來預測 (https://tsjh301.blogspot.com)

Survey data

調查單位	「樣本」	發布日期	郭台銘	柯文哲	蔡英文	領先	中立/未表
山水民調	1,087	4/2/19	33.1%	33.1%	24.1%	0.0%	9.7%
世新大學	1,068	4/18/19	35.6%	25.2%	20.2%	10.0%	19.0%
美麗島民調	1,087	4/20/19	34.1%	24.3%	24.7%	9.0%	16.9%
聯合報	1,178	4/22/19	31.0%	27.0%	20.0%	4.0%	22.0%
展欣手機民調	1,011	4/22/19	32.1%	26.0%	31.3%	6.0%	10.6%
ET民調(含網路)	7,868	4/23/19	35.8%	22.7%	27.1%	13.0%	14.4%
TVBS民調	1,222	4/26/19	31.0%	28.0%	22.0%	3.0%	19.0%
美麗島民調	1,068	4/29/19	23.1%	26.4%	25.5%	3.0%	25.0%
TVBS民調	1,222	4/26/19	33.0%	28.0%	22.0%	5.0%	17.0%
趨勢民調	1,069	5/3/19	25.7%	28.5%	27.6%	3.0%	18.2%
循證民調	1,101	5/3/19	27.9%	29.1%	27.3%	1.0%	15.7%
TVBS民調	951	5/10/19	31.0%	30.0%	24.0%	1.0%	15.0%
典通民調	1,077	5/14/19	27.6%	23.6%	28.4%	1.0%	20.4%
ET民調(含網路)	3,489	5/15/19	35.1%	22.7%	24.8%	10.0%	17.4%

Internet Data

Source: SwayStrategy

US influence

US Influence

Presidential Phone call: Trump and Tsai
Armament sales
Congressional bills/laws on Taiwan:
- Taiwan Relations Act
- Taiwan Travel Act
- Taiwan Assurance Act

China factors

1996: Missile crisis
2000's: ECFA, CSSTA
Since 2016:
- Row over "92 Consensus"
- Ban Taiwan from WHA, ICAO
- De-recognitions (by five countries)
- Xi's address to Taiwan "Compatriots"

"Turning point" factors

Trade war
Triangular equilibrium challenged
- Rising China vs. US withdrawal
- Relative vulnarability of Taiwan
Asymmetry in Taiwan elections
- Other External factors
- Support network structures
- Generational divide

Discussions

Long cycle observations
- Electoral cycle
- Comparative developments
- Party system in tact?
Short term forces
It is a democracy!

The China Factor in 2020 Taiwan Elections

Background

In 2018, the ruling party Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered major defeats in local and mayoral elections. The loss in the south including Kaohsiung was unprecedented.

Background

Is Taiwan politics becoming more volatile?

How much do the issue impacts change from elections to elections?

What is the outlook of the 2020 elections?

In 2018, the ruling party Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) suffered major defeats in local and mayoral elections. The loss in the south including Kaohsiung was unprecedented.

Logistic Regression: Issue Impacts on Tsai Vote (2016) Clark, Ho and Tan (2016)

Findings: 2004-2016 Surveys

Party identification variables have strong effects guiding the issue variables.

Three important variables stand out:

National identity issue (Independence vs. unification)

Economic evaluations

Taiwanese identity (Taiwanese vs. Chinese)

Demographic variables are weak (age, income.

Effect sizes vary, even though the same metrics are used (1,0)

New methods

We run regression models using resampled data with all combinations of relevant variables.

Each year, we estimated over 16,000 models to test the stability of the effects.

Figure 2. Issue effects in Taiwan elections: Support Independence

Figure 3. Issue effects in Taiwan elections: Economic evaluations

Figure 4. Issue effects in Taiwan elections: Taiwanese

Summary

Asymmetry of impacts in the national identity continuum prevails. Independence proponents have been showing stronger support for DPP than unification proponents to KMT.

Taiwanese identity polarizes further the blue and green in 2016.

Economic factors may not be the predominant driving forces of future elections, in competition with other identity factors and party effects.

Trends of public opinion data

Multiple candidates from more than blue and green camps comparing to Blue vs. Green in the past

Many many more surveys of different modes:

Telephone

Landline

Mobile

Internet

Face-to-face

Social media, internet data: Big data methods

DPP competitions

KMT competitions

Viable candidates: Terry Guo vs. Han Kuo-yu

KMT competitions

Viable candidates: Terry Guo vs. Han Kuo-yu

Survey Data: Han-Ko-Tsai

Survey Data: Han-Ko-Tsai

Survey data

Survey Data: Gou-Ko-Tsai

Survey Data: Gou-Ko-Tsai

Survey data

Internet Data

US Influence

Presidential Phone call: Trump and Tsai

Armament sales

Congressional bills/laws on Taiwan:

Taiwan Relations Act

Taiwan Travel Act

Taiwan Assurance Act

China factors

1996: Missile crisis

2000's: ECFA, CSSTA

Since 2016:

Row over "92 Consensus"

Ban Taiwan from WHA, ICAO

De-recognitions (by five countries)

Xi's address to Taiwan "Compatriots"

"Turning point" factors

Trade war

Triangular equilibrium challenged

Asymmetry in Taiwan elections

Discussions

Long cycle observations

Electoral cycle

Comparative developments

Party system in tact?

Short term forces

It is a democracy!

Questions and Comments are welcome.

Thank you!

Logistic Regression: Issue Impacts on Tsai Vote (2016)
Clark, Ho and Tan (2016)

Figure 2. Issue effects in Taiwan elections:
Support Independence

Figure 3. Issue effects in Taiwan elections:
Economic evaluations

Figure 4. Issue effects in Taiwan elections:
Taiwanese

Questions and Comments
are welcome.